The biggest reason the Texans won’t fare well in 2016
Bad news Texan fans.
I’m an optimist, but there is literally ZERO chance we win the elusive Championship next season. Yep, we are a long shot anyway, but here’s my biggest reason that Rick and Bob will not hoist a Lombardi in next year.
The NFL has hosted 50 Super Bowls. Never once has a host team played in a Super Bowl in their own stadium. ZERO out of 50. While two teams have played in a Super Bowl within the same city (the 1980 Los Angeles Rams lost XIV in Pasadena, and the SF 49ers won XIX at Stanford 35 miles from San Francisco), no team has played in a Super Bowl in their stadium.
Super Bowl LI is in Houston at NRG next year.
I am more concerned about how bad we’ll be next year. The conspiracy fan in me thinks the NFL is making sure it never happens. In all 50 years, only five teams have even made the playoffs the year they are hosting. Until 1999, the game was mainly played in 3 cities, The Rose Bowl in LA (without an NFL team), New Orleans (Saints), and Miami (Dolphins). These three cities have combined to host 27 of the 50 games.
In the late 80s and early 90s, the NFL added two new cities, Atlanta and Phoenix. In 2002, when our Texans entered the league, things opened up. The NFL promised Super Bowl XXVIII to Houston and the new Reliant Stadium. The NFL had altered its strategy for selecting host cities. Culturally, the Super Bowl has become an even larger spectacle and teams and cities compete to host. Hosting the game became a reward for making an investment in a stadium. Build a new stadium; host a Super Bowl. Since the 2004 game in Houston, the league added Ford Field in Detroit, Lucas Oil in Indianapolis, Cowboys Stadium in Arlington, MetLife in New Jersey, and SB 50 in the 49er’s newly completed Levis Stadium. With games awarded so far in advance, the NFL might need to prevent a potential damaging home-field advantage scenario in its most competitive event.
Backing up — home field advantage wasn’t a problem in 2004 when the game came to Reliant (Now NRG). The upstart Texans were two years old, they stunk, and they missed the playoffs. The 2005 Lions were in rebuild mode, they went 5–11 and missed postseason play. Miami, the most frequent host location, didn’t qualify for the postseason in 2006, finishing 6–10. In 2007, Arizona finished 8–8 and missed the playoffs. A young Buccaneers team went 9–7 in 2008 but failed to qualify for the postseason. These host cities didn’t have great teams.
The game went back to Miami in 2009, but the Dolphins finished 7–9 and missed the playoffs. That same year, the Dallas Cowboys won the NFC East under Wade Phillips. After beating Philadelphia in the regular season finale and Wild Card game, they lost to Brett Favre and the Vikings in the Divisional Round. But they were vastly improved. It was their first playoff win in 20 years, and they were built to make a run in 2010. But guess what — they were also hosting the Super Bowl in 2010. Mysteriously they started the next season 1–7. They would finish 6–10, fire their coach, and miss the playoffs. It was the first time in league history an 11–5 team started the next season 1–7 start.
In the same year that the Cowboys hosted SB XLV and missed the playoffs, the Indianapolis Colts coasted to their 7th AFC South title and their 9th consecutive playoff appearance. The Colts were virtually guaranteed a playoff spot; we Texan fans know this. That could spell trouble for the NFL and the 2011 Super Bowl at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. There was an off chance Peyton Manning would get to play a home game in a Super Bowl. It didn’t happen. In 2011, the Colts lost Manning to a mysterious neck injury and finished 2–14, landing the first pick in the draft and their next franchise QB in Andrew Luck.
In the same year that the Colts hosted XLVI and missed the playoffs, the New Orleans Saints, two years after a Super Bowl win, went 13–3 and were in the playoffs for the 3rd straight year. The Saints lost a close game to the 49ers and would be ready to compete in 2012. But they were hosting XLVII in 2012. In the offseason, the NFL discovered the Gregg Williams bounty controversy. Williams, their Defensive Coordinator, was fired, the league suspended Head Coach Sean Payton, and the Saints were never the same. The year they hosted the Super Bowl, they finished 7–9 and missed the playoffs.
Super Bowl XLVIII in New York was easy for the league. The Jets were always average and didn’t surprise, finishing 8–8. The Giants, who two years earlier had won a Super Bowl after a 9–7 season had 13 players end the season on injured reserve and sputtered their way to a 7–9 season. Neither team was a threat to get to the game in their stadium.
2014 keeps us honest. We only saw the one team in the past 18 years make the playoffs, the 2014 Arizona Cardinals. But the league was safe. Despite a red hot middle of the season, the Cardinals lost their starting QB, their last two regular season games, and their mojo. They were knocked out in the first round by a 7–8 Panther team.
All of that brings us up to date. With Super Bowl 50 in San Francisco, the 49ers had a chance to get there. After all, the 49ers had been to the NFC Championship 3 of the last four seasons, barely losing Super Bowl XLVII to Baltimore. They were 8–8 the year before their host year, and shockingly it was was enough for the ownership to fire Coach Harbaugh. The coach that had brought them back to success was gone and in his place was former Defensive Line coach, Jim Tomsula. You know what happened. The 49ers went 5–11, fired coach Tomsula, and missed the playoffs.
What does this mean for Texan fans who know that we’re hosting XLI? In the past 50 years, only five host teams have made the playoffs, none of them got past round two, and they don’t sniff the Super Bowl. In a strange set of events, the past 12 seasons have been witness to crazy franchise implosions take place the year the team hosts the Super Bowl.
Watch out, y’all. While we’ll get lovely night shots of the city, the close ups of grilled sausages after commercials, and the economic boom of increased civic improvement, I guarantee that J.J. and Brock will be spectators for Super Bowl 51.
HOSTING NOTES: New Orleans and Miami have hosted 10 Super Bowls, Los Angeles 7 (none since 1993), Tampa 4, Phoenix & San Diego 3, Houston, Detroit, Atlanta, and the Bay Area have hosted twice. There are five cities to host only one game: Jacksonville, Minneapolis, East Rutherford, Arlington, and Indianapolis.
